in the republican front on taxes? this hour, house budget chairman paul ryan and ranking budget committee democrat, chris van the dnc chair and congressman allen west. and feengthe heat. more than 140 million americans now sweating it out in a dangerous heat wave sweeping the nation. touchdown after 30 years. america's space shuttle comes in for its final landing. good day. i'm andrea mitchell reporting live from washington. lots of talk but no deal. as the senate takes up what is expected to be a pro forma rejection of the house passed balanced budget amendment, house republicans came out against both the gang ofix o the debt limit. with me now, the chair of the budget committee, wisconsin republican paul ryan. what is the latest you are

hearing? we know cantor and the speaker, eric cantor and the speaker were at the white house meeting with the president st night. there's talk now, reports from the "new york times" moments ago of a possible coming together between speaker boehner and the president. what are you being briefed on or what do you know is the state of play? >> good afternoon. basically what the state of play is it's very fluid. we're looking at what the talks between the speaker and the president are, those details have yet to be shared. we also are looking at what would be a plan b. nobody wants to see default. all we want to see is some spending reductions, spending cuts, as we grapple with this issue. so it's a fluid situation. we've got 12 days. cool heads will prevail and we just want to cut spending. >> how do we know tt cool heads will prevail and that the markets won't get freaked? well before the 12 days have expired, and you will start seeing a cascade which as you know can happen instantly if some big player decides to sell off.

>> obviously i'm not qualified to speak on behalf of the markets and what they will or will not do, but just my own judgment based upon all the various kinds of conversations that are occurring, are that we will find a way to deal with this issue. we do know that the root cause of our debt and deficit problem is spending is just too high. we also want economic growth. we don't want to embrace policies that we sincerely believe will damage the economy and hurt job creation. if you do that, then you lose even more revenues. so what we want to do is get a downpayment on our deficit and debt by getting spending cuts. i think that there are constructive conversations that are occurring both sides of the rotund rotunda, both sides of pennsylvania avenue. i do believe cooler heads will prevail. what are the constructive convsations? for instance, are some elements of the gang of six proposal, i know you said it's not specific enough, it doesn't go adequately to slowing the growth of health spending, but are there constructive cuts proposed so far that can be worked on down the road? >> for a couple of months, there

have been constructive cuts. the biden talks i thought were probably the most productive exercise of all these exercises that have been going on around here. >> why did eric cantor walk out? >> well, that's a longer story. because of the insistence of tax increases. i still believe those talks were producing some results on spending cuts. with respect to the gang of six, there's a lot of confusion about this. it's a few pages of talking points, embracing what we call three different revenue baselines. i have a hard time seeing how you say instead of increasing taxes by $3.8 trillion, we will increase it by $2.3 trillion and that's a tax cut. i think there's a little mathematical problem there. there's no specifics of material. it's sort of a plan to have a plan. let me just say this, andrea. we passed a plan. we passed it twice now. we actually put specific legislation in the light of day through the committee process and passed it twice to deal with this. we didn't see a specific plan

offered by the other side yet, let alone passed. >> we know we are past that, though. one of the questions that occurs is whether grover norquist's suggestion, however you want to interpret it, that letting the bush tax cuts expire would not violate the so-called no tax pledge. do you take that as an opening? steny hoyer suggested today that is an opening. >> well, look, in the lame duck session, the president extended all the tax rates where they are. the tax rates have been in law for almost a decade. they were extended in december for two years. at that time, the president said the last thing we ought to be doing in this economy is raising taxes so we want to prevent that from happening. let's remember already in current law, we have about a $1.5 trillion tax increase scheduled to occur in a little over a year's worth of time. that right now is damaging the economy. it's hurting businesses with their sense of planning and injecting uncertainty into the economy and creating job loss, stacking more tax increases on those which are already scheduled to occur, we just

don't think is good for creating jobs and economic growth. you got to have jobs and economic growth if you want to get the deficit under control. >> getting back to the expiration of the bush tax cuts -- >> that's what i'm talking about. >> right. correct. and it not being a violation of the pledge. does that create some running room? >> no. i'm saying if you raise tax rates, that is violating a tax pledge. >> you view that as -- okay. >> yes. i view raising tax rates from 35% to 44.8% which is the effective tax rate that is scheduled to occur in 2013, i see that as a tax increase. more to the point, andrea, one in four jobs in america come from subchapter s corporations. almost 54% of jobs come from businesses that file as individuals and the current law says their tax rates are going from 35% to an effective 44.8% in 2013. when their competitors overseas in canada, in china, in india are paying a lot lower tax rate.

that hurts job creation here. look, it's not the big companies anymore that are engaged in international competition. it's the small and medium businesses that are, too. we just feel that if we keep taxing our job creators, our businesses, at higher rates than our foreign competitors are taxing theirs, it will cost us economic growth. more to the point, when we keep raising taxes in washington, for ephemeral promises that never materialize, we are not fixing the problem. >> let me get to that topic. the "wall street journal" says even the $600 billion in spending cuts in stage one are worth grabbing as part of a debt ceiling vote. more broadly, democrats in the gang are making a big concession by saying the tax rate should go down, not up. >> i agree with that. >> even obama-care must be reformed. why not grab what you can? >> that's what i want to do. >> and worry about reducing the taxes down the road. >> i think that's what we're going to do.

>> if they don't materialize, you can revert and raise taxes down the road. >> i think that's what we should do is grab the kind of spending cuts we can right now. so we want to get spending cuts. the spending cuts in the so-called gang of six plan are extremely vague. they are sort of a promise that senate democrats will pass spending cuts later, where there are no details or specificity. i have seen that game played around here before. i want to get spending cuts under control. the other thing is with the gang of six, it's saying we are going to lower tax rates which they are becoming a bipartisan consensus to that which i'm encouraged about, but keep the loopholes and raise revenues. these are conflicting mandates. they don't add up. so i'm not sure which of these three promises is going to go because they don't add up when you add them together. >> mr. chairman -- >> more to the point, let's get the spending cuts. >> what about mcconnell-reid as a fall-back, short-term, plus the promise of commitments that are to come? if we are at the strike of

midnight, is there some sort of a fail-safe option? >> sorry, i didn't mean to interrupt you, andrea. since we're in the middle of these conversations right now, i just don't think it's in our interest to sort of speculate what our fall-back plan is going to be. no offense. i just don't think it's good to negotiate through the media as we're trying to get significant spending cuts to deal with this issue. there are lots of different fall-back plans that are being offered out there. i assume that there will be a fall-back plan in place. what that's going to be or what we want to agree to, it's not in our interest to say that right now. but i do believe that we will have cooler heads prevail and prevent a default from happening, and i don't think it's a lot to ask for when government spending is going up at a pace we haven't seen since world war ii, to ask to reduce some of that spending. i just don't think that's asking a lot. >> what david brooks wrote last week, interestingly, and certainly some republicans took note of it because david brooks is well known and well respected in republican and democratic circles as a "new york times" writer. he said if the republican party

were a normal party, it would take advantage of this amazing moment. it is being offered the deal of the century, trillions of dollars in spending cuts in exchange for a few hundred billion dollars of revenue increases. and there have been bipartisan and nonpartisan groups that have suggested it would be $400 billion of loophole closures that could be affected without calling it in effect a tax increase. >> well, our budget which was passed last april, proposed to close all these loopholes in exchange for tax reform. so we were the first to call for closing all these corporate tax loopholes to lower our tax rates, to create jobs. so nobody should hold a candle to us on wanting to close loopholes. we have been saying that forever. it's just all the spending cuts, we have yet to see specifics. we have yet to see commitments to do this. but we see a lot of commitments on tax rate increases. that's what we're concerned about. but more to the point, at the end of the day, does a guy like me think we can have a more

efficient tax system that raises revenues at say 18%, 19% or 20% of gdp without causing an economic problem. i do. but the key is, you bring a government down to 18%, 19% or 20% of gdp, that's not on the table. no reforms have been offered to deal with the drivers of our debt which is health care entitlement spending that brings government spending down in line with revenue. all we're talking about right now is not bringing spending down in line with revenues but just bringing revenues up. if you go down this path of chasing ever higher spending with ever higher revenue, you will shut down the economy and you are not going to fix the problem. that's our concern. >> finally, with 12 days to go, who is more important in this process, eric cantor or the speaker of the house? >> i think the president of the united states is. >> fair enough. thank you very much, congressman paul ryan. great to see you. thanks for joining us. where do we stand now? democratic and republican strategists with us. gentlemen, i heard a lot in

there. i heard him say nobody wants us to default. maybe he's just trying to sound reasonable but i think that cooler heads have prevailed and there's a lot that he said is constructive being talked about in private on both sides of the house. david winston, what are you hearing? >> that's exactly what i'm hearing. we're in the middle of negotiations. it will get tense because there are people on both sides who have some principles and are trying to work through how do they find common ground to get there. both sides clearly want to get there, at least at this point republicans feel we have passed a plan that's on to the senate, we'll see what happens to it. we want to see what the president will come back with. but the idea that this is going to get solved in the next ten minutes, there are some real serious principles at stake here that the two sides need to sit down and work through to come to an agreement. >> one of the things you hear coming off the hill, david and bob, is that people in both parties were pretty shocked by the way eric cantor behaved last week at the white house meetings, preempting the speaker of the house. in a way that even aggressive,

ambitious members of the leadership in either party haven't seen on public display. bob? >> i think he covets that limousine. no wonder the speaker walks out of every meeting and lights a cigarette and chain smokes as he goes into it. he knows the guy behind him is trying to take away his job. they both deny it. everybody believes it's true. what i just heard from paul ryan was very interesting. it's a whiff of realism. that's sort of the overriding sentiment that he's saying. he understands as the adults in the room have all along, john boehner, mitch mcconnell, i disagree with them on a lot of things, they understand that you can't let the united states default. you can't fail to raise the debt limit, which ronald reagan did 18 times. now, we are going to get to an agreement, i don't know whether it's going to be the mcconnell agreement or whether there is some chance for a grand bargain, but it's going to only happen with democratic votes in the house. i don't think boehner can deliver his full caucus. i think nancy pelosi will have

to deliver a lot of votes and i think she will. >> how many votes does john boehner have to deliver to be able to continue and be an effective speaker and hold on to his speakership? >> i mean, i have to say, i disagree with this sort of entire premise. right now, where the speaker is, he has the full support of his entire conference. i have to also disagree with bob, having been in a lot of meetings with eric cantor and john boehner, they are getting along extraordinarily well as the whole leadership team is. this is just sort of a red herring, people are putting out there to create some sort of artificial fight that in fact does not exist. >> the biden talks were going well, but eric cantor walked out of the biden talks. >> but understand, bear with me, i understand that, but eric cantor was given the responsibility for the initial round of negotiations. everybody knew that ultimately it would have to be escalated to the speaker and the president of the united states. it was up to eric cantor to decide what moment was that when

that escalation needed to occur. he exercised the responsibility and authority that was given to him by the leadership team to make that decision. it was that simple. >> with 12 days to go, shrum, happy birthday to you. >> it's the 39th anniversary of my 29th birthday. a debt deal would be a good birthday present for the whole country. look, i don't really care about this internal fight between cantor and boehner. i was actually trying to say something nice about boehner. he's trying to find a way to get to the responsible place. cantor doesn't seem to but i think in the end, with the help of pelosi, the votes will be there. we'll raise the debt limit and go on to fight these issues out in 2012. >> seriously, a happy birthday to you, bob. >> thank you. >> david, it's not your birthday, but have a good day anyway. thanks so much.

the debt ceiling gets personal for the women of capitol hill. congresswoman jackie speier joining us next on "andrea mitchell reports." co really save you 15% or more on car insurance? host: do people use smartphones to do dumb things? man 1: send, that is the weekend. app grapgic: yeah dawg! man 2: allow me to crack...the bubbly! man 1: don't mind if i doozy. man 3: is a gentleman with a brostache invited over to this party? man 1: only if he's ready to rock! ♪ sfx: guitar and trumpet jam vo: geico. 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance.

congressman allen west from florida, republican freshman, still under fire today for comments that he directed at his colleague, congresswoman debbie wassermann-schultz tuesday. he called her vile, unprofessional, despicable, not a lady. here on our show yesterday, she responded. she had this to say. >> well, i have to tell you, i was unfazed by his e-mail. congressman west represents thousands of senior citizens which is what i was pointing out, and they would face significant increased costs due to the republicans medicare plan and the cut, cap and balance bill.

so it's not really surprising that he would crack under the pressure of having to defend that. >> congresswoman jackie speier from california, part of a group of congressional women demanding leadership rebuke congressman west for his comments. she joins us now. what would you like the republican leaders to say to congressman west? because he didn't say -- he said this in an e-mail, not on the floor of the house. is that his out? >> that's correct. but under any other circumstances in any other workplace environment, his conduct would be under investigation right now and could in fact create an action for what is called a hostile work environment, a sexual harassment hostile work environment. he could be fired. to somehow allow this to just go on in the people's house is just unacceptable. the hot rhetoric that gets all the attention here has got to cease. so all of us feel very strongly that there has to be some kind

of action taken against him for what he did, and i feel this way about democrats and republicans alike. i would be standing here talking about this if one of my colleagues on the democratic side did that as well. >> this was what he had to say. he spoke to fox news. >> i have been called uncle tom, sell-out. it's not about allen west. once again, it's very interesting to me that we continually allow liberals to do whatever they want in attacking conservatives but all of a sudden when a conservative stands up and says enough, then people want to sit back and play victim. she's not a victim. she's been attacking allen west for quite some time. >> is this liberal versus conservative, male versus female, republican versus democrat? what are the fault lines here? >> it's really about a colleague in the house attacking another colleague. it's about a code of conduct that exists here and unprofessional conduct,

unbefitting a member of congress cannot be tolerated. imagine the founding fathers having a conversation like that. shut the heck up, i guess is what he said. >> one question i have, do you have any -- this is a gender issue, among other issues. do you have any republican members of congress, republican women, joining you? >> they have not, and i want to make it very clear that if this was an attack made on a republican woman in congress, i would be standing here making the same statement. this is about unprofessional conduct of a member of the house attacking another member in the most extreme of circumstances, and again, if this was in any other workplace environment, it would be the subject of an inquiry, it would be the subject of a sexual harassment or hostile work environment action. >> congresswoman, before we let

you go, i want to give you a chance to give a shout-out to the speaker of the house, john boehner, republican speaker, obviously, for finally doing what no woman has been able to do in power in congress, and finally there is a woman members restroom. >> that's right. i actually used it yesterday, right off the floor of the house. thanks to speaker boehner. >> for doing something no woman has been able to accomplish in all the years up there on capitol hill. thanks so much for joining us. is tim pawlenty going after michele bachmann because of his own political headaches? they set out to streamline the bathroom remodeling business, creating bath simple, a bath in a box concept treating the whole bathroom as a single product. they put the bathtub, toilet,

tiles and even screws and nails all inside one box. [ female announcer ] ever wish vegetables didn't taste so vegetably? well, v8 v-fusion juice gives you a full serving of vegetables, plus a full serving of fruit. but it just tastes like fruit. and try our deliciously refreshing v8 v-fusion + tea. a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain so your body can stay in motion. because just one 200mg celebrex a day can provide 24 hour relief

for many with arthritis pain and inflammation. plus, in clinical studies, celebrex is proven to improve daily physical function so moving is easier. and celebrex is not a narcotic. when it comes to relieving your arthritis pain, you and your doctor need to balance the benefits with the risks. all prescription nsaids, like celebrex, ibuprofen, naproxen, and meloxicam have the same cardiovascular warning. they all may increase the chance of heart attack or stroke, which can lead to death. this chance increases if you have heart disease or risk factors such as high blood pressure or when nsaids are taken for long periods. nsaids, including celebrex, increase the chance of serious skin or allergic reactions or stomach and intestine problems, such as bleeding and ulcers, which can occur without warning and may cause death. patients also taking aspirin and the elderly are at increased risk for stomach bleeding and ulcers. do not take celebrex if you've had an asthma attack, hives, or other allergies to aspirin, nsaids or sulfonamides. get help right away if you have swelling of the face or throat, or trouble breathing. tell your doctor your medical history

and find an arthritis treatment for you. visit celebrex.com and ask your doctor about celebrex. for a body in motion. but when she got asthma, all i could do was worry ! specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all. with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. tim pawlenty is on the attack. three weeks ago before the iowa straw poll which could decide his future, he is going after michele bachmann big-time. most recently on her migraines. politico editor in chief john

harris joins us. is this an all or nothing deal with tim pawlenty? >> his campaign really is struggling. it's right at the threshold where if the ball bounces the right way for him, he will be seen as a serious candidate, potentially in the top tier as we get a few months from now to the iowa caucuses and new hampshire primary but if it bounces the other way, this summer, including at the iowa straw poll a couple weeks from now, i think he's really going to be gasping for air and people are not going to see him as a credible top contender. he sees his -- part of his opposition right now is michele bachmann because she's been sucking up so much of the oxygen in the room with the headlines she's been drawing, particularly in iowa. >> and in the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll with the matchup showing her at 16% behind mitt romney at 30% and

pawlenty is off the charts. >> down in single digits. jonathan martin in politico this morning writes this is incredibly frustrating to pawlenty and the team because they have been planning a race for a couple of years now. he is somebody that's kind of come up through the ladder of politics in a very slow, steady, steadfast way, and they see her as kind of following this lightning bolt strategy, really springing on the national scene just within the last couple years and at least for the moment, galloping far ahead of him in a ver john. is nancy pelosi john boehner's new best friend? ranking budget committee joining us. the heat wave, broiling half the country. is there any relief in sight? >> extreme, intense, literally hell on earth. >> it's a lot better than a blizzard but still not good. >> very, very, very hot.

>> when you start to get a little dizzy and cross-eyed, you have to slow down. [ male announcer ] at e-trade, investing means taking action

with professional-grade research. and some of the most powerful, yet easy to use trading tools on the planet. it's investing with intelligence and cold hard conviction. e-trade. investing unleashed.

topping the headlines right now on "andrea mitchell reports" the end of the run. the space shuttle "atlantis" crew returned to earth, touching down just before dawn, marking an end to the manned space flight program. the last shuttle rolled to its final stop, mission control radioed "job well done, america". rupert murdoch and his wife wendi are back home in new york after their grilling in parliament. one outcome, his news corp. says it has stopped paying the big legal fees for the man who hacked into the phones in the first place, an issue that outraged british lawmakers. and there could be a breakthrough today in the four month old nfl lockout. team owners held a meeting this morning to discuss a possible deal. if all the kinks are worked out and accepted by both sides today, training camp could even open by this weekend. it's a heat wave and it has been suffocating the midwest for

days. now it has spread east. temperatures are now in triple digits across a broad area with more than half of the country now affected, from kansas all the way to maine. nbc's kevin tibbles joins us from chicago. i don't know how you're doing it but it feels awful. i was out shooting a story yesterday afternoon and it is just terrible. how are people coping? >> reporter: sweltering is just one of the words you could use to describe what it is here. i got to tell you that, it is 96 degrees and that does not include the heat index. obviously in places like chicago throughout the midwest and in your direction, because i know it's in d.c. and 31 other states, there are heat advisories or heat warnings in effect, and this dome of heat doesn't really seem to be going anywhere. it isn't in a hurry to get anywhere. it's sort of locked down on top of us here. we have already been enduring this for some three days now and a lot of people are starting to get fed up with it.

interestingly enough, we were standing in this very spot about six months ago and we had about three feet of snow, the temperatures were below zero and it was very windy. we've got a lot of people saying to themselves right now, gee, i wonder which is better in chicago, winter or summer. i just wish we would get something in between, because it is really hot. the emergency rooms here are getting filled up with people who are suffering from heat exhaustion. interestingly enough, back in '95, they had a heat wave where more than 700 people lost their lives as a result of heat-related heat stroke type injuries. the hospitals now are up to speed, they are urging people to stay hydrated. they are urging people to check on their elderly neighbors and relatives. they want to make sure we all come through this thing better than they did in 1995. >> thanks to you, kevin. those are good warnings to everyone to check on neighbors and friends. >> reporter: as they say, it's

just too damn hot, as they say. >> exactly. thanks, kevin. keep channeling that ice storm. congress is also feeling the heat. with me now, maryland congressman chris van hollen, ranking member of the budget committee, and chairman of the dcc. what are we hearing now? we are hearing things are fluid, paul ryan just told me a few moments ago there are constructive elements out there, there are conversations. he thinks everyone is serious about avoiding a default. "new york times" is reporting some coming together on terms between the president and speaker of the house. what can you tell us? >> i think that that's generally correct, other than the fact you continue to have a fairly large contingent of house republicans who think that it would not be so bad if the united states didn't pay its bills and defaults on a debt. that continues to be a wild card. i do think the leaders, both in congress and of course the white

house and both political parties are trying to find a solution here, and the focus remains, andrea, on trying to get a grand bargain, even as talks go on about a plan b. there is still serious discussions about trying to get something big done. >> well, one of the things that was said earlier today was that even a six-month deal in order to provide enough time to get that grand bargain together, if you can agree on the outline, it still takes months really for the congressional budget office to score anything. so can something be done to avert the likelihood of a default after august 2nd and then work out the details later? will people sign on to that? >> well, you could conceivably do that but i think it would be a mistake to, for example, just lift the debt ceiling for six months. i think we need some certainty in the economy and i don't think that that provides it. the president made the same point several weeks ago when he said that a very short-term deal

that only, you know, allows us to pay our bills for six months and puts us back in the same spot after that doesn't really do it. better that we try and agree to the overall outlines now. yes, you could spend time to fill in the details, but again, how you structure this kind of agreement to make sure that both parties see that it's balanced and balance is a critical piece from the democratic side, that's a very tricky thing to put together. that's what the focus is on now. >> one of the things paul ryan also said was that he doesn't see any daylight in the possibility that it wouldn't be a violation of the no tax pledge of grover norquist, no tax increase pledge to let the bush tax cuts expire. what has been the impact of grover norquist and that no tax pledge on all these negotiations? >> well, it's been very significant, because republicans have taken the position that i think is out of step with most

of the american people, that you cannot raise one penny of revenue from closing corporate tax loopholes, whether it's oil companies or corporate jets or whatever it is, you can't do that for the purposes of reducing the deficit, and the president put on the table a plan that calls for $3 in cuts to every $1 in revenue to try and get to a ten-year $4 trillion plan but because of grover norquist's pledge, republicans seem to be more worried about him than they are about reducing the deficit. that has been an impediment. we're hoping that maybe we can see some breakthrough there. you need a breakthrough there if you're going to get a balanced approach and you need a balanced approach if you're going to get a big deal. >> is nancy pelosi, are you democrats going to be able to provide enough democratic votes to help john boehner out as he tries to pull this together, even despite the opposition of those freshmen who are so

rigidly against any compromise? >> we have made very clear number one that america has to pay its bills. these are bills for things that we have already voted on. democrats and republicans alike. no american family can wake up one day and say i'm not going to pay my bills or i'm just going to pay my mortgage payment but not my car payment. you can't do that. number two, we will support a balanced approach to reducing the deficit. we have to reduce the deficit. the question is how. and we believe it has to be a balanced approach which is where this issue comes in with respect to grover norquist, which is that if republicans take the position that you can't get one penny to reduce the deficit from closing corporate tax loopholes, however big or small, you can't get that balance. so yes, we're prepared to be definitely part of the solution in making sure america pays its bills. definitely part of the solution in terms of having a long-term solid deficit reduction plan. but we won't take something that's extreme. we won't, for example, accept the republican proposal that they passed in the house the

other day that says we are actually going to amend the constitution of the united states to make it easier to cut medicare and social security, which they say you can do with a majority vote but if you want to close a corporate tax loophole for the purpose of reducing the deficit, they would write into the constitution you need two-thirds vote for that. in other words, writing into our constitution itself a bias in favor of cutting education or medicare rather than cutting corporate tax loopholes. we're certainly not going to subscribe to that totally unbalanced approach. >> chris van hollen, thank you very much. >> thank you. for the markets, of course, the date to watch in this standoff isn't really just august 2nd. a crash could come in moments, in seconds, even sooner if the markets decide there will not be an agreement in time. what can we expect if time does run out? jay powell served as top official at the treasury department under president george herbert walker bush and has studied the potential consequences for the independent bipartisan policy center.

he joins us now. jay, what does happen when time runs out, whether it's august 1st, august 3rd, what do we see happening? the bond holders are going to be paid so what kind of choices does the president have to make? >> that's exactly what we see. we see if the debt ceiling's not raised by august 2, starting on august 3 and for the rest of the month, we assume the bond holders will be paid their interest. we assume there's not much risk on that. but that other creditors who are beneficiaries of federal government payments, approximately half of those won't be able to be paid, 50% of other government payments, there won't be the cash to pay them. and we tried many experiments. you can't cut 50% overnight without eliminating many, many popular, important programs. we tried. you can't do it. >> social security might be a separate issue because there are a lot of technical reasons why the trust funds could be borrowed against and social security checks could keep going out. >> there's no way to guarantee. the issue is beyond complex and there is no way to guarantee that social security payments

will go out in full and on time, unless there's a debt ceiling increase, either a specific one to deal with social security or a broader debt ceiling increase. >> what then happens as it plays out over the coming days, august 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th? >> on the 3rd, our estimates show that the government -- the government's dependent on incoming cash flow to pay its bills. on the 3rd, we estimate $12 billion of inflows and $32 billion of bills. so $23 billion of that is social security payment. so there's an issue about whether that payment can be made on the 3rd. it might have to be made on the 4th or the 5th. the implication is not that it will be missed but it will be late. that's not a great start for the experiment, it seems to me. it gets worse as the month goes on. the bills could just stack up and the administration might not take an active role in choosing who gets paid. they might simply pay the bills in the order in which they arrive out of available cash so they don't have to make those choices. >> well, politically, that could be untenable. what do you say to freshmen

republicans primarily who say look, default isn't such a big issue, let's let it happen? >> i have actually spoken in private and i will respect the confidentiality of that to the whole caucus and to the freshmen. i don't get that from very many people. i think overwhelmingly, the leadership in both parties and the members get it, this is something we really, really should not let happen, that there is significant potential consequences. they are also very committed to getting something done. >> jay, finally, do you assume this is going to get resolved? >> i think it's really tough. i think we have a couple days. the issue is time. i want to channel congressman ryan's optimism there a few minutes ago. they've got to get a bill introduced in the senate by friday or saturday at the latest or it can be filibustered and we will be right through the deadline without even a final vote. we need to move quickly here. >> thanks so much. breaking news right now, nbc news has learned that jon huntsman's campaign manager has quit the campaign, being

replaced by matt david. details coming up. alone there's been a 67% spike in companies embracing the cloud-- big clouds, small ones, public, private, even hybrid. your data and apps must move easily and securely to reach many clouds, not just one. that's why the network that connects, protects, and lets your data move fearlessly through the clouds means more than ever. oh, we call it the bundler. let's say you need home and auto insurance. you give us your information once, online... [ whirring and beeping ] [ ding! ] and we give you a discount on both. sort of like two in one. how did you guys think of that? it just came to us. what? bundling and saving made easy. now, that's progressive. call or click today.

coming up on "news nation" at 2:00 eastern, a new immigration law in alabama is being called even tougher than the law that stirred up so much controversy and legal challenges in arizona. today, civil rights group has filed a lawsuit challenging the state of alabama before the law takes effect at the end of the summer. opponents take issue with part of the law that makes it illegal to take an illegal immigrant to the hospital. the driver would be arrested. plus, soda makers are joining forces to say they are tired of being blamed for the obesity rate in america. they say health departments should provide scientific proof that soda is to blame if they try to pass one of those so-called sugary drink taxes. all of that and more 15 minutes away. the chamber of commerce is now urging congress to compromise on a plan to raise the debt ceiling before it is too late. major garrett is a congressional

correspondent for national journal. the cover story is how the partisan divide is affecting states. major, let's talk about what we now know. paul ryan just told me there is no daylight between the grover norquist no tax pledge for republicans in the house, that most have signed, and -- >> all but six house republicans have signed. 234 of the 240 have signed the no tax increase pledge. 41 of 47 senators have signed it. whatever that window was opened, it was opened ever so briefly and slammed close not only by speaker boehner, paul ryan, but grover norquist and his group, americans for tax reform, said any net tax increase is a violation of the pledge. the gang of six proposal, vague though it is, in their opinion, has enough detail to tell them there are tax increases in there and the simpson-bowles presidential commission on

deficit and debt reduction from which the gang of six drew much of its policy inspiration also violates the pledge so we're back to square one. >> who made grover norquist king? >> he was at national journal last week. we had a long conversation. he said look, i'm not speaking for grover norquist -- >> i'm just asking you to give me the history. >> he said look, the pledge grew out of tax reform efforts led by ronald reagan in 1986 because the tax reform movement did not want to increase taxes. remember back then, those of us who were around, that was tax revenue neutral. it changed the code but didn't raise tax -- didn't increase taxes. he said from then on, the posture of that group was if you sign this pledge, you will never in your office that you are running for or in, vote to increase taxes on a net basis. grover's opinion is the pledge isn't to him, it's to the voters who evaluate that pledge in whatever contest you're running in, the republican primary or general election.

>> i remember ronald reagan saying the sound you hear around me is the cement cracking around my feet, when he made a compromise because circumstances changed. >> several times during his presidency, yes. >> alan simpson in "time" magazine says why would i ever sign a pledge based on something that hasn't even happened yet. >> right. but those who have signed it know that it is first of all, very clear, very direct and can be evaluated by future republican primary voters, and in an era when there is redistricting and tea party primary threats in many different districts and states, this has become a bedrock issue for republicans as they view the debt ceiling issue and whether or not net tax increases are permissible. so whatever room there was this morning has since evaporated and we are at that same loggerheads on this particular question. >> although you certainly get the sense from listening to just

my conversation with ryan and listening to what's happening on the hill, there are serious conversations going on right now and deals are being discussed. are being discussed. >> yes, the latest rumor is that the president is now floating an idea of a $3 trillion with no revenue in it, and senate sources have said that they are concerned tha concerned about this possibility. and when there is a letter opposing the gang of six which has revenue in it, you can only imagine the entrenched democratic reaction to a plan with $3 trillion with no revenue in it seems fanciful in the extreme, but it is the latest circulating and the circulating stories will be bedevilling me and you and those who call ourselves reporters in washington for the next 12 days. >> i thank you, i think. and what political story will be making political headlines in the next 24 hours here on "andrea mitchell reports," only here on msnbc. tables didn't taste so vegetably?

well, v8 v-fusion juice gives you a full serving of vegetables, plus a full serving of fruit. but it just tastes like fruit. and try our deliciously refreshing v8 v-fusion + tea. but it just tastes like fruit. diabetes testing? what else is new? you get the blood, hope it's enough, it's--

what's this? freestyle lite® blood glucose test strip. sure, i'll try it, but-- [beep] wow. yep, that's the patented freestyle zipwik™ design. it's like it-- [both] targets the blood. yeah, draws it right in. the test starts fast. you need just a third the blood of one touch.® okay. freestyle test strips. i'll take 'em. sure. call or click-- we'll send you strips and a meter, free. can't i just have these? freestyle lite test strips. call or click today.

so which political story will make headlines in the next 24 hours. joining us is msnbc contributor and and managing editor of post politics.com, chris cillizza is joining us from the hill, and i assume you are talking to sources, because the senate will take up the house-proposal tomorrow, and that is not going to fly, and the house is going out and meetings with tim geithner and the president and the vice president and talk according to "the new york times" that the democrats have told them that a deem is imminent. >> you know, andrea, you have got it exactly right. we have the public show, and the balanced budget amendment which no matter what happens in the senate, it won't pass and it is not going anywhere, so you have a positioning vote there so that the republicans can say we were for it, and behind the scenes talk that we are moving in the right direction and what moving in the right direction means is questionable and i would say andrea, until we know all of the details particularly on the

revenue and the tax side of it and until we know all of the details there, i would be m hesitant to say yes, it is a deal, and i would be clear no net tax increases and revenues, and how can they fudge it if a deal is cut to vote for it, and that is not what we know about it. but until we know the details, proceed with caution, because we will find them out relatively soon. >> the fudge factor, and that is exactly what it is all going to be about, and boil down to the fudge factor. chr chris cillizza, call if you find out. >> will do. and joining us tomorrow is kent conrad the chairman of the senate budget committee and remember to follow us online and my colleague tamron has "newsnation" next. >> thank you, andrea. wall street is creating a

doomsday plan if we go into default, and one leader say weg are in contingency mode and it is an active process and could wall street force the lawmakers to reach a deal? we will get the latest on the talk deals. and a dozen of people have died because of the heat dome smothering the nation and the scorching temperatures are moving east and it is going to be hotter over the next few days and more oppressive and "newsnation" is minutes away. fire! ♪ [ mom ] wow! [ female announcer ] cascade complete pacs. love it or your money back. ...was it something big? ...or something small? ...something old? ...or something new? ooh oohhing youav the 2nd generation of intel core processors. stunning visuals, intelligent performance. this is visibly smart.

this is my band from the 80's, looker. hair and mascara, a lethal combo. i'm jon haber of alto music. i've been around music my entire life. this is the first alto music i opened when i was 24. my business is all about getting music into people's hands. letting someone discover how great music is, is just an awesome thing. and the plum card from american express open helps me do that. i use it for as much inventory as i possibly can. from picks...to maracas... to drums... to dj equipment... you name it, i can buy it. and the savings that we get from the early pay discount on those purchases has given us money to reinvest back into our business and help quadruple the size of our floor space. and the more we expand, the more space we have for instruments and musicians to come play them. rock n roll will never die. how can the plum card's trade terms get your business booming?

booming is putting more music in more people's hands. but when she got asthma, all i could do was worry ! specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all.

with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. i'm tam rron hall and the "newsnation" is following more news on the debt crisis. news that the financial world is growing more weary by the day, and creating what is called by "the new york times" a doomsday plan in case the debt ceiling deadline passes without a deal. and we are told that quote we are developing